tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23393523623665077272024-03-13T20:28:40.421-07:00Gulfino Che Guevaraaku adalah samg pemimpi..
aku akan pergi dengan mimpi ku..
aku ingin pergi ke Eropa menginjakan kaki di kemegahan dunia baru..
aku ingn belajar, sampai aku kembali ke negaraku Indonesia dengan membawa perubahan..
dan aku ingin membuat orang tua ku tersenyum,,,
aku ingin menjadi Presiden, dan menstop hutang Indonesia,,,dan aku aku ingin melunasi hutang Indonesia...
doakan aku semua..tolong dengar doa ku TUHAN...
STOP GLOBAL WARMING!!Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-76559630285250653812009-03-14T00:03:00.000-07:002009-03-14T00:09:21.263-07:00Putri lah CINTA ku DI SMAPutri..aku sayang kamu..biarlah semua berlalu,,meninggalkan kisah yang telah usang,,tapi aku akan kembali pada mu,,mencari mu kemana pun sampai aku benar2 bisa meluluhkan hatimu,,ya sama seperti dalam buku yang pernah kamu pinjamkan pada ku,,tetralogi laskar pelangi,,aku akan bermimpi dan mewujudkan mimpi itu put,,karena kamulah aku bisa beruabah menjadi seperi ini,,tapi maafkan aku put,,selalu membuatmu marah dan selalu mengecewakanmu,,putri,,ik hou van jij..vino syang ke km put...<br />vno pengn denger lagi km bicara kata-kata itu lagi ke aku put,,,,,<br /><br />selamat jalan put,,,selamat tinggal put,,mari kita pergi mencari jalan kehidupan masing2 untuk meraih mimpi2 itu..<br /><br />jika memang kita di takdirkan bersma oleh ALLAH SWT..aku akan ajak km ke kota impian mu put...<br />I love U.....Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-58485973728736391942009-03-11T01:47:00.000-07:002009-03-11T01:53:44.842-07:00kemana cintaku???Perjalanan ku di kota ini akan mendekati ke akhir,,setelah hampir 12 tahun aku mencari segala cerita di kota yang idnah ini,,mungkin(insya ALlah) beberpa bulan lagi semua cerita-cerita ku di kota yang telah membesarkan ku akan berakhir,,mungkin unutk selamanya,,<br />bukan karena aku membeci kota yang telah membesarkan ku, tapi aku ingin mencari cahaya hidupku yang baru..aku ingin berkelana mencari mozaik-mozaik hidupku yang tercecer di mana-mana dan aku akan pergi mencarinya meski ke ujung dunia sekali pun,,karena hanya itu yang bisa membuat hidupku menjadi lebih berarti,,aku ingin menjadi manusia yang bermanfaat,,bukan sebagai parasit,,aku ingin membantu mereka yang tidak beruntung,,,,aku ingn menjadi lebih dekat dengan TUHAN,,oleh karena itu pencari diriku akan arti penting hidup sangat perlu,,oleh karena itu doakan aku agar aku bisa pergi mencari cahaya impianku,,,mencari mozaik-mozaik hidupku...Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-42342598700486691822009-03-09T23:38:00.000-07:002009-03-09T23:42:24.412-07:00MENGAPA PKI HARUS DILARANG DI INDONESIA!!!!AKU BUKAN KOMUNIS,,TAPI AKU SUKA PADA PAHAM KOMUNIS,,MENGAPA SEMUA HARUS TERJADI BEGITU CEPAT,,KETIKA AKU BELUM LAHIR TRAGEDI BESAR PADA MASA SEBELUM AKU DILAHIRKAN MEMBUAT AKU HARUS MENERIMA DAMPAK YANG MEMBUATKU TAK BISA BERKEMBANG,,,AKU INGIN SEMUA BEBAS MENGEKSPRESIKAN DIRINYA SENDIRI MESKI ITU BERKAITAN DENGAN PAHAM YANG DILARANG DI NEGARA KU,,<br />PKI BUKAN ATHEIS,,KOMUNIS TIDAK HARUS ATHEIS,,KOMUNIS ADALAH PAHAM YANG DAPAT MEMBANTU MANUSIA UNTUK BERSATU,,,MANUSIA BUTUH PENYATU,,TUHAN DAN AJARANNYA LAH YANG DAPAT MENYATUKAN UMAT MANUSIA DAN KOMUNIS IKUT AMBIL BAGIAN...Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-34531837819448100962009-01-10T02:55:00.001-08:002009-01-10T02:56:13.417-08:00<div style="text-align: center; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">PALESTINA MU, JUGA PALESTINAKU...<br /><br />Palestina mu bukan Palestina ku…<br />Luka mu, tapi luka ku..<br />Di atas berterbangan burung-burung bernafas api pencabut nyawa Mu...Palestina mu..<br /><br />Aku yang melihat berbatas lautan dari Mu, masih bisa mencium bau anyir tetesan dari darah-darah Palestinamu...<br /><br />Terluka begitu dalam, sampai-sampai tak terlihat lagi goresan-goresan luka masa lalu mu..yang begitu membekas...<br /><br />Bukan karena duri-duri kecil yang kau tebar ditanah mu yang d curi setan-setan yang datang ke bukit Zion...<br />Tapi keserakahanlah, kebutaan arti perdamaian lah yang membuat manusia-manusia yang seharusnya suci itu menjadi lebih biadab dari setan...dia setan Zionis...<br /><br />Anak-anak mu telah dirampas tawanya...<br />Anak-anak mu telah dirampas tangis nya...<br />Dan semua hanya bisa mengutuk dan mengutuk ..<br /><br />Tak ada tawa...tak ada canda..tak ada kesenagan yang terlihat di tanah suci,,<br />Yang terlihat..mayat-mayat yang tak pernah tau alasan mereka mati..<br />Yang terlihat tangis bayi kecil yang besar nanti akan balas dendam....<br />Yang terlihat hanya dentum roket-roket F-16,Mortir..yang sekali jatuh saudara-d\saudaraku terengut nyawa....<br /><br />Palestina kini terluka dalam..<br />Pelestina kini di kebiri keserakahan biadab-biadab Zionis...<br /><br />Luka Palestina, kebisuan Padang Pasir..<br />Darah Palestina, kebisuan Gurun Sinai..<br />Tak ada angin kehidupan, tak ada air di tengah badai Gurun Sinai...<br /><br />Hanya mereka yang lemah,yang datang pada mu membawa setetes betadine untuk lukamu yangtelah membusuk...<br /><br />Kapan angin perdamaian berhembus di tanah suci 3 agama???<br />Kapan hujan turun di tanah yang gersang akan arti perdamaian???<br /><br />PALESTINA MU SEKARANG PALESTINAKU..<br />LUKA MU,,LUKA KITA SEMUA..<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />KAPaN....KAPAN...<br /><br /><br /><br />Kapan bayi itu lahir tanpa harus mendengar dentum roket di tanahnya sendiri...<br />Kapan bayi yang belum lahir itu bisa mersakan indahnya memiliki ayah dan ibu ketika dia besar nanti????<br /><br />Ketika lagit cerah, perdamaian tak juga menghiasai langit Timur Tengah...<br />Ketika roket-roket sudah menjadi koleksi museum...<br />Ketika seluruh umat manusia berada di bawah naungangan TUHAN...<br />Baru mereka yang lahir, tidak meraskan dendam untuk membalas..<br />Orang tuanya yang mati tertembak..<br />Kakeknya yang mati dijatuhi Bom..<br />Tanahnya yang dirampas pendatang...<br />Rumahnya yang dirusak tank-tank...<br /><br />Hari itu...semua akn menangis bahagia....<br />Hari itu, mereka datang ke dunia bukan untuk menumpahkan darah, tapi membersihkan jalan-jalan yang berserakan mayat orang tuanya...<br /><br />Baru hari yang akan datang itu..tak ada alasan unutk saling membunuh...<br />Baru hari itu benar-benar terjadi perdamaian yng telah menjadi mimpi kakeknya,,neneknya, ayahnya,,ibunya..<br /><br />Tapi kapan hari itu datang.???<br />Ketika Tuhan kembali menancapkan kehendaknya...<br />Langit timur tengah benar-benar cerah dengan perdamaian...<br />Yag telah menjadi mimpi jutaan orang.....<br /><br />STOP WAR<br />10-1-2009<br /><br /></div>Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-3494040144011394832009-01-07T03:20:00.000-08:002009-01-07T03:23:21.234-08:00<span><br /></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span>apa yang kalian tau tentang GLOBAL WARMINg...<br /><br />ya..memang gejala alam sih,,tapi kalian juga perlu tau,,kalau GW bisa diperparah karena ulah manusia itu sendiri......so stop global warming sebelum terlambat..ngerti????</span></span>Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-29805014941253277752008-12-01T21:47:00.000-08:002008-12-01T21:52:14.927-08:00<div style="text-align: justify;"><br /><a style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8bNl1VaE14Y/STTMWKf3llI/AAAAAAAAAAM/vsGHfUEXwOg/s1600-h/images.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 129px; height: 103px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8bNl1VaE14Y/STTMWKf3llI/AAAAAAAAAAM/vsGHfUEXwOg/s320/images.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5275065744704902738" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div><h1 style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify;" class="firstHeading">Global warming</h1><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><h3 style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify;" id="siteSub">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</h3><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify;" id="jump-to-nav">Jump to: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#column-one">navigation</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#searchInput">search</a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"> <!-- start content --> </div><div style="right: 10px; display: none;" class="metadata topicon" id="featured-star"> <div><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Featured_articles" title="This is a featured article. Click here for more information."><img alt="Featured article" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/60/LinkFA-star.png" border="0" height="14" width="14" /></a></div> </div> <div class="metadata plainlinks topicon" id="protected-icon" style="position: absolute; z-index: 100; right: 55px; top: 10px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> <div><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Protection_policy#semi" title="This article is semi-protected due to vandalism."><img alt="Semi-protected" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Padlock-silver-medium.svg/20px-Padlock-silver-medium.svg.png" border="0" height="20" width="20" /></a></div> </div> <div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="dablink">This article is about the current period of increasing global temperature. For other periods of warming in Earth's history, see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record" title="Geologic temperature record">Geologic temperature record</a>.</div> <div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="thumb tright"> <div class="thumbinner" style="width: 282px;"> <div class="thumbimage"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png" class="image" title="Global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1961–1990"><img alt="Global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1961–1990" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png/280px-Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png" border="0" height="208" width="280" /></a></div> <div class="thumbcaption">Global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1961–1990</div> <span style="display: block; height: 2px; font-size: 1px;"> </span> <div class="thumbimage"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Map.jpg" class="image" title="Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980"><img alt="Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8c/Global_Warming_Map.jpg/280px-Global_Warming_Map.jpg" border="0" height="199" width="280" /></a></div> <div class="thumbcaption">Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980</div> </div> </div> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Global warming</b> is the increase in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" title="Instrumental temperature record">average measured temperature</a> of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth" title="Earth">Earth</a>'s near-surface air and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean" title="Ocean">oceans</a> since the mid-20th century, and its projected continuation.</p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Global surface temperature increased 0.74 <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus-minus_sign" title="Plus-minus sign">±</a> 0.18 °<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celsius" title="Celsius">C</a> (1.33 ± 0.32 °<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fahrenheit" title="Fahrenheit">F</a>) during the 100 years ending in 2005.<sup id="cite_ref-grida7a_0-0" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-grida7a-0" title=""><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Global_1-0" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-Global-1" title=""><span>[</span>2<span>]</span></a></sup> The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC) concludes that most of the increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribution_of_recent_climate_change" title="Attribution of recent climate change">due to</a> the increase in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropogenic" title="Anthropogenic">anthropogenic</a> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gas</a> concentrations.<sup id="cite_ref-grida7_2-0" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-grida7-2" title=""><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Global_1-1" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-Global-1" title=""><span>[</span>2<span>]</span></a></sup> Natural phenomena such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation" title="Solar variation">solar variation</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano" title="Volcano">volcanoes</a> probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-3" title=""><span>[</span>4<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-4" title=""><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a></sup> These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Scientific opinion on climate change">scientific societies and academies of science</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-5" title=""><span>[</span>6<span>]</span></a></sup> including all of the national academies of science of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G8" title="G8">major industrialized countries</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-6" title=""><span>[</span>7<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-7" title=""><span>[</span>8<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-8" title=""><span>[</span>9<span>]</span></a></sup> While <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming" title="List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming">individual scientists</a> have voiced disagreement with these findings,<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-9" title=""><span>[</span>10<span>]</span></a></sup> the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main conclusions.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-10" title=""><span>[</span>11<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-11" title=""><span>[</span>12<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a> projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface temperature will likely rise a further <span style="white-space: nowrap;">1.1 to 6.4 °C</span> <span style="white-space: nowrap;">(2.0 to 11.5 °F)</span> during the twenty-first century.<sup id="cite_ref-grida7_2-1" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-grida7-2" title=""><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a></sup> This range of values results from differing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions</a> and from the use of models with differing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a>. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a thousand years even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized. This results from the large heat capacity of the oceans.<sup id="cite_ref-grida7_2-2" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-grida7-2" title=""><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Increasing global temperature is expected to cause <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise" class="mw-redirect">sea levels to rise</a>, an increase in the intensity of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">extreme weather</a> events, and significant changes to the amount and pattern of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitation_%28meteorology%29" title="Precipitation (meteorology)">precipitation</a>, likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-12" title=""><span>[</span>13<span>]</span></a></sup>. Other expected <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming" title="Effects of global warming">effects of global warming</a> include changes in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_yield" title="Agricultural yield" class="mw-redirect">agricultural yields</a>, modifications of trade routes, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">glacier retreat</a>, mass species <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">extinctions</a> and increases in the ranges of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_%28biology%29" title="Vector (biology)">disease vectors</a>.</p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Remaining scientific <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty" title="Uncertainty">uncertainties</a> include the amount of warming expected in the future, and how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kyoto_Protocol_signatories" title="List of Kyoto Protocol signatories">Most national governments</a> have signed and ratified the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a> aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_global_warming" title="Politics of global warming">Political</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy" title="Global warming controversy">public debate</a> continues regarding what, if any, action should be taken to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitigation_of_global_warming" title="Mitigation of global warming">reduce or reverse</a> future warming or to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation_to_global_warming" title="Adaptation to global warming">adapt</a> to its expected consequences.</p> <table style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="toc" class="toc" summary="Contents"> <tbody><tr> <td> <div id="toctitle"> <h2>Contents</h2> <span class="toctoggle">[<a href="javascript:toggleToc()" class="internal" id="togglelink">hide</a>]</span></div> <ul><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Greenhouse_effect"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Greenhouse effect</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Solar_variation"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Solar variation</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Forcing_and_feedback"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">Forcing and feedback</span></a> <ul><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Climate_variability"><span class="tocnumber">3.1</span> <span class="toctext">Climate variability</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Feedback"><span class="tocnumber">3.2</span> <span class="toctext">Feedback</span></a></li></ul> </li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Temperature_changes"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">Temperature changes</span></a> <ul><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Recent"><span class="tocnumber">4.1</span> <span class="toctext">Recent</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Pre-human_climate_variations"><span class="tocnumber">4.2</span> <span class="toctext">Pre-human climate variations</span></a></li></ul> </li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Climate_models"><span class="tocnumber">5</span> <span class="toctext">Climate models</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Attributed_and_expected_effects"><span class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">Attributed and expected effects</span></a> <ul><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Environmental"><span class="tocnumber">6.1</span> <span class="toctext">Environmental</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-2"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Economic"><span class="tocnumber">6.2</span> <span class="toctext">Economic</span></a></li></ul> </li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Adaptation_and_mitigation"><span class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">Adaptation and mitigation</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Economic_and_political_debate"><span class="tocnumber">8</span> <span class="toctext">Economic and political debate</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Related_climatic_issues"><span class="tocnumber">9</span> <span class="toctext">Related climatic issues</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#See_also"><span class="tocnumber">10</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Notes_and_references"><span class="tocnumber">11</span> <span class="toctext">Notes and references</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#Further_reading"><span class="tocnumber">12</span> <span class="toctext">Further reading</span></a></li><li class="toclevel-1"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#External_links"><span class="tocnumber">13</span> <span class="toctext">External links</span></a></li></ul> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ if (window.showTocToggle) { var tocShowText = "show"; var tocHideText = "hide"; showTocToggle(); } //]]> </script> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a name="Greenhouse_effect" id="Greenhouse_effect"></a></p> <h2 style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="mw-headline">Greenhouse effect</span></h2> <dl style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><dd> <div class="noprint relarticle mainarticle"><i>Main articles: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gas</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a></i></div> </dd></dl> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">The detailed <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribution_of_recent_climate_change" title="Attribution of recent climate change">causes of the recent warming</a> remain an active field of research. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Scientific opinion on climate change">scientific consensus</a><sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-13" title=""><span>[</span>14<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-14" title=""><span>[</span>15<span>]</span></a></sup> is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution" title="Industrial Revolution">industrial era</a>, and the observed warming cannot be satisfactorily explained by natural causes alone.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-15" title=""><span>[</span>16<span>]</span></a></sup> This attribution is clearest for the most recent 50 years, for which the most detailed data are available.</p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">The greenhouse effect was discovered by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Fourier" title="Joseph Fourier">Joseph Fourier</a> in 1824<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-16" title=""><span>[</span>17<span>]</span></a></sup> and was first investigated quantitatively by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a> in 1896. It is the process by which <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absorption_%28electromagnetic_radiation%29" title="Absorption (electromagnetic radiation)">absorption</a> and emission of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared" title="Infrared">infrared</a> radiation by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere" title="Atmosphere">atmospheric gases</a> warm a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet" title="Planet">planet</a>'s lower atmosphere and surface. Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases.</p> <div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="thumb tright"> <div class="thumbinner" style="width: 282px;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg" class="image" title="Recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The monthly CO2 measurements display small seasonal oscillations in an overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum is reached during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during the Northern Hemisphere growing season as plants remove some CO2 from the atmosphere."><img alt="" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/51/Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg/280px-Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg.png" class="thumbimage" border="0" height="180" width="280" /></a> <div class="thumbcaption"> <div class="magnify"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide-en.svg" class="internal" title="Enlarge"><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/skins/common/images/magnify-clip.png" alt="" height="11" width="15" /></a></div> Recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>). The monthly CO<sub>2</sub> measurements display small seasonal oscillations in an overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum is reached during the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Hemisphere" title="Northern Hemisphere">Northern Hemisphere</a>'s late spring, and declines during the Northern Hemisphere growing season as plants remove some CO<sub>2</sub> from the atmosphere.</div> </div> </div> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F), without which Earth would be uninhabitable.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1_17-0" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1-17" title=""><span>[</span>18<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-18" title=""><span>[</span>19<span>]</span></a></sup> On Earth, the major greenhouse gases are <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor" title="Water vapor">water vapor</a>, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_forcing" title="Cloud forcing">not including clouds</a>); <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" title="Carbon dioxide">carbon dioxide</a> (CO<sub>2</sub>), which causes 9–26 percent; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a> (CH<sub>4</sub>), which causes 4–9 percent; and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone" title="Ozone">ozone</a>, which causes 3–7 percent.<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-19" title=""><span>[</span>20<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-20" title=""><span>[</span>21<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Human activity since the industrial revolution has increased the concentration of various greenhouse gases, leading to increased <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">radiative forcing</a> from CO<sub>2</sub>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">methane</a>, tropospheric <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone" title="Ozone">ozone</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFC" title="CFC">CFCs</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" title="Nitrous oxide">nitrous oxide</a>. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Increase_of_greenhouse_gases" title="Greenhouse gas">atmospheric concentrations</a> of CO<sub>2</sub> and methane have increased by 31% and 149% respectively since the beginning of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_revolution" title="Industrial revolution" class="mw-redirect">industrial revolution</a> in the mid-1700s. These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-21" title=""><span>[</span>22<span>]</span></a></sup> From less direct geological evidence it is believed that CO<sub>2</sub> values this high were last attained 20 million years ago.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-22" title=""><span>[</span>23<span>]</span></a></sup> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a> burning has produced approximately three-quarters of the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, in particular <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation" title="Deforestation">deforestation</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-23" title=""><span>[</span>24<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are expected to rise due to ongoing burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sociology" title="Sociology">sociological</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology" title="Technology">technological</a>, and natural developments. The IPCC <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" title="Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a> gives a wide range of future CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-24" title=""><span>[</span>25<span>]</span></a></sup> Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach this level and continue emissions past 2100, if <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal" title="Coal">coal</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands" title="Tar sands" class="mw-redirect">tar sands</a> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate" title="Methane clathrate">methane clathrates</a> are extensively used.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-25" title=""><span>[</span>26<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a name="Solar_variation" id="Solar_variation"></a></p> <h2 style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="mw-headline">Solar variation</span></h2> <dl style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><dd> <div class="noprint relarticle mainarticle"><i>Main article: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation" title="Solar variation">Solar variation</a></i></div> </dd></dl> <div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="thumb tright"> <div class="thumbinner" style="width: 282px;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png" class="image" title="Solar variation over the last thirty years."><img alt="" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Solar-cycle-data.png/280px-Solar-cycle-data.png" class="thumbimage" border="0" height="186" width="280" /></a> <div class="thumbcaption"> <div class="magnify"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png" class="internal" title="Enlarge"><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/skins/common/images/magnify-clip.png" alt="" height="11" width="15" /></a></div> Solar variation over the last thirty years.</div> </div> </div> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Some other <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypotheses" title="Hypotheses" class="mw-redirect">hypotheses</a> departing from the consensus view have been suggested to explain most of the temperature increase. One such hypothesis proposes that warming may be the result of variations in solar activity.<sup id="cite_ref-Svensmark2007_26-0" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-Svensmark2007-26" title=""><span>[</span>27<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-27" title=""><span>[</span>28<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-28" title=""><span>[</span>29<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">A paper by Peter Stott and other researchers suggests that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have been underestimated.<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-29" title=""><span>[</span>30<span>]</span></a></sup> They nevertheless conclude that even with an enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming since the mid-20th century is likely attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases.</p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Two researchers at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_University" title="Duke University">Duke University</a>, Bruce West and Nicola Scafetta, have estimated that the Sun may have contributed about 45–50 percent of the increase in the average global surface temperature over the period 1900–2000, and about 25–35 percent between 1980 and 2000.<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-30" title=""><span>[</span>31<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">A different hypothesis is that variations in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation" title="Solar variation">solar output</a>, possibly amplified by cloud seeding via <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_cosmic_ray" title="Galactic cosmic ray">galactic cosmic rays</a>, may have contributed to recent warming.<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-31" title=""><span>[</span>32<span>]</span></a></sup> It suggests magnetic activity of the sun is a crucial factor which deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-32" title=""><span>[</span>33<span>]</span></a></sup></p> <p style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">One predicted effect of an increase in solar activity would be a warming of most of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere" title="Stratosphere">stratosphere</a>, whereas an increase in greenhouse gases should produce cooling there.<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-33" title=""><span>[</span>34<span>]</span></a></sup> The observed trend since at least 1960 has been a cooling of the lower stratosphere.<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-34" title=""><span>[</span>35<span>]</span></a></sup> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Reduction of stratospheric ozone</a> also has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-35" title=""><span>[</span>36<span>]</span></a></sup> Solar variation combined with changes in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano" title="Volcano">volcanic activity</a> probably did have a warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a cooling effect since.<sup id="cite_ref-grida7_2-3" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-grida7-2" title=""><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a></sup> In 2006, Peter Foukal and colleagues found no net increase of solar brightness over the last 1,000 years. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle" title="Solar cycle">Solar cycles</a> led to a small increase of 0.07 percent in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is too small to contribute significantly to global warming.<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-36" title=""><span>[</span>37<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-37" title=""><span>[</span>38<span>]</span></a></sup> One paper by Mike Lockwood and Claus Fröhlich found no relation between global warming and solar radiation since 1985, whether through variations in solar output or variations in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray" title="Cosmic ray">cosmic rays</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-38" title=""><span>[</span>39<span>]</span></a></sup> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark" title="Henrik Svensmark">Henrik Svensmark</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eigil_Friis-Christensen" title="Eigil Friis-Christensen">Eigil Friis-Christensen</a>, the main proponents of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding" title="Cloud seeding">cloud seeding</a> by galactic cosmic rays, disputed this criticism of their hypothesis.<sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-39" title=""><span>[</span>40<span>]</span></a></sup> A 2007 paper found that in the last 20 years there has been no significant link between changes in cosmic rays coming to Earth and cloudiness and temperature.<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-40" title=""><span>[</span>41<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-41" title=""><span>[</span>42<span>]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#cite_note-42" title=""><span>[</span>43<span>]</span></a></sup></p>Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-77247312000529304112008-11-29T06:52:00.000-08:002008-11-29T06:53:18.003-08:00Put..i always waiting u...please believe me...Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2339352362366507727.post-6137208224279407302008-11-29T05:46:00.000-08:002008-11-29T05:56:31.373-08:00Eropa, dunia baru dan lamakemana aku akan melangkah...<br />Berjalan ke tengah Kedamaian...<br />kemana langkah-langkah itu berubah menjadi langkah-langkah emas...<br /><br />Leiden University???Harvard???Oxford???<br /><br />menuntuk langkahku untuk menginjakan kaki di altar suci..<br />kemegahan dunia yang baru...<br /><br />Mimpku akan tetap membuatku tersenyum...<br />meski kegetiran mengurungku...<br /><br />Mimpi ku akan selalu membuatku berjalan..<br />dengan langkah pasti meski kaki ini sudah tak mampu lagi...<br /><br />aku akan pergi ke dunia baru membawa cita-cita yang selalu <br />menerangi langkahku...<br /><br />sambut aku dunia baru...<br />aku datang untuk meraihnya...<br /><br />sambut aku dengan ilmu pengetahuan mu...Gulfino Sang Pemimpinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01997965842258453334noreply@blogger.com0